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Check the Fair Value List tab for current updates to Fair Values. Information is provided "as is", solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice.

Last updated 07/22/14   Please read disclaimer - link at the bottom of this page 

 

Graphs reflect the one time non-cash, non-tax-deductible income statement charge of $6.19 billion for the impairment of goodwill in June 2012.




FV reflects the minimum of the PE Analysis or the average of the DCF & Graham,i.e., one serves as a backstop to the other.

Partial results copied from program available to IIEX supporters

 

DCF Summary

YEAR ENDING 2004200520062007200820092010201120122013TTM
Cash Flow from Operations14626 16605 14404 17796 21612 19037 24073 26994 31626 28833 28620
Purchase Of Property, Plant, Equipment(1109)(812)(1578)(2264)(3182)(3119)(1977)(2355)(2305)(4257)(5949)
Free Cash Flow13517 15793 12826 15532 18430 15918 22096 24639 29321 24576 22671
Shares Outstanding (Diluted)10894109061053198869470899689278593850684708367
FCF/Share$1.24 $1.45 $1.22 $1.57 $1.95 $1.77 $2.48 $2.87 $3.45 $2.90 $2.71
Dividends Per Share$0.16 $0.32 $0.34 $0.39 $0.43 $0.50 $0.52 $0.61 $0.76 $0.89 $1.02
5 year FCF growth rate    9.4%4.1%15.2%12.8%12.1%10.4%1.8%
Projected cash growth rate after 20146.0% Acid Test Ratio2.562.572.663.16
10Recalled Inputs
MSFT Discount Rate10%Override 5yr diluted share growth rate of -0.4% 
MSFT Margin of Safety (MOS)30%
Replace next years default FCF of 24536 ($mil) 
Override projected cash growth rate 
MSFT Perpetuity growth rate3.0%
  
Total Equity$78,944As of 2013
NPV$424,024 424024-924605
Total$502,968
DCF Fair Value$42.47 Discount to DCF FV:None
Adjusted FV$42.88

 

PE Summary

YEAR ENDING 2004200520062007200820092010201120122013TTM
Adjust net income for non-recurring charges if applicable        6190  
Net Income816812254125991406517681145691876023150231682186322427
Period ending PE Ratio38.422.119.520.714.714.710.99.711.213.416.7
Shares Outstanding (Diluted)10894109061053198869470899689278593850684708367
Month End Stock Price ($)$28.80$24.84$23.30$29.47$27.51$23.77$23.01$26.00$30.59$34.55$44.84
Diluted EPS - Total$0.75 $1.12 $1.20 $1.42 $1.87 $1.62 $2.10 $2.69 $2.72 $2.58 $2.68
5 year growth rate     16.7%13.3%17.6%13.9%6.7%10.6%
Modeled five year EPS growth rate used for FV7.5%<--The projected long term EPS growth of 5.45% has been overridden - Clear the override value to return
Nasdaq Data7.8%8%7%4%
 Consensus Estimates from NasdaqYear EndEPSHighLowEstimates
Go to the Nasdaq.com site     NOTE: Analyst estimates are not always based on GAAP. This will distort EPS growth rates. 
orJun-14$2.68$2.74$2.6313
Analyst Growth Consenus for MSFTJun-15$2.91$3.18$2.6412
Consensus Estimates for MSFTJun-16$3.16$3.41$2.818For more than 2 estimates
Analyst targets for MSFTJun-17$3.46$3.58$3.352Growth from Jun-14:8.6%
Allowable PE Used16.0
10 Year median PE - 14.7; Forward PE - 16.714.234
Optional Overrides   (recalc may be required)Recalled Inputs
Override EPS (current eps used: $2.680) Forward share growth rate = -0.4%
Manual override is on the DCF sheet
Override projected EPS growth (also affects Graham analysis)7.5%
Override allowable PE above16
Allow for dividend influence (if any) Click for more detailNoAdjusted FV$42.88
Fair Value based on PE$42.9 PE Fair Value Discount:NoneDiscount to Adj:None
 

 

 

Graham Summary

 

safety factor (S.F.)

 

Last bond import on 26-Jun-14

20yr AAA Corp Bond rate

 

Default modified graham

Est. EPS x

(

8.5

+

1.9

x EPS growth rate) x

0.80

x min(

1

,

4.4/

3.89

)

Revised modified graham input area in yellow

Est. EPS x

(

 

+

 

x EPS growth rate) x

0.75

x min(

1

,

4.4/

3.89

)

Computer recommendations

8.5

 

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

optional bond rate override:

 

 

 

 

 

A

 

B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Est. EPS

 

 

EPS growth rate) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USED ------->

$2.68

(

8.5

+

1.9

7.50

0.75

x min(

1

,

4.4/

3.89

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Modified Graham FV

Discount to Graham FV:

2.0%

 

Analyst targets for MSFT

 

$45.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted FV

 

 

$42.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discount to Adjusted:

None