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SymbolPriceChange% Chg
INTC34.50-0.29-0.83%
Quotes are by IDC Comstock and are delayed 20 minutes.
Fund prices are from Morningstar.
                                                           Link to Articles                      Link to INTC Quarterly Data

Check the Fair Value List tab for current updates to Fair Values. Information is provided "as is", solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice

last updated 7/15/14   Please read disclaimer - link at the bottom of this page 

 

 



FV reflects the minimum of the PE Analysis or the average of the DCF & Graham,i.e., one serves as a backstop to the other.

Partial results copied from program available to IIEX supporters

 

DCF Summary

YEAR ENDING 2004200520062007200820092010201120122013TTM
Cash Flow from Operations13119 14823 10620 12625 10926 11170 16692 20963 18884 20776 19992
Purchase Of Property, Plant, Equipment(3843)(5818)(5779)(5000)(5197)(4515)(5207)(10764)(11027)(10711)(11226)
Free Cash Flow9276 9005 4841 7625 5729 6655 11485 10199 7857 10065 8766
Shares Outstanding (Diluted)64946178588059365748564556965411516050975117
FCF/Share$1.43 $1.46 $0.82 $1.28 $1.00 $1.18 $2.02 $1.88 $1.52 $1.97 $1.71
Dividends Per Share$0.16 $0.32 $0.40 $0.45 $0.55 $0.56 $0.63 $0.78 $0.87 $0.90 $0.90
5 year FCF growth rate    -6.9%-4.2%19.6%8.0%8.8%10.9%-3.2%
Projected cash growth rate after 20143.5%
10Recalled Inputs
INTC Discount Rate10%Override 5yr diluted share growth rate of -1.3% 
INTC Margin of Safety (MOS)30%
Replace next years default FCF of 9320 ($mil) 
Override projected cash growth rate 
INTC Perpetuity growth rate3.0%
  
Total Equity$58,256As of 2013
NPV$137,192 137192-636959
Total$195,448
DCF Fair Value$28.61 Discount to DCF FV:None
Adjusted FV$31.23


PE Summary

YEAR ENDING 2004200520062007200820092010201120122013TTM
Adjust net income for non-recurring charges if applicable           
Net Income75168664504469765292436911464129421100596209505
Period ending PE Ratio20.217.823.622.715.926.410.410.19.713.817.0
Shares Outstanding (Diluted)64946178588059365748564556965411516050975117
Month End Stock Price ($)$23.39$24.96$20.25$26.66$14.66$20.40$21.03$24.25$20.62$25.96$31.60
Diluted EPS - Total$1.16 $1.40 $0.86 $1.18 $0.92 $0.77 $2.01 $2.39 $2.13 $1.89 $1.86
5 year growth rate     -7.7%7.5%22.8%12.7%15.4%19.1%
Modeled five year EPS growth rate used for FV4.8%
Nasdaq Data6.9%7%7%8%
 Consensus Estimates from NasdaqYear EndEPSHighLowEstimates
Go to the Nasdaq.com site     NOTE: Analyst estimates are not always based on GAAP. This will distort EPS growth rates. 
or

Dec-14

$2.04

$2.20

$1.85

23

 

Analyst Growth Consenus for INTC

Dec-15

$2.17

$2.51

$1.84

22

 

 

 

 

 

Consensus Estimates for INTC

Dec-16

$2.32

$2.75

$2.06

6

 

For more than 2 estimates

 

Analyst targets for INTC

Dec-17

$2.30

$2.30

$2.30

1

Growth from Dec-14:6.6%
Allowable PE Used15.0
10 Year median PE - 17.0; Forward PE - 15.512.534
Optional Overrides   (recalc may be required)
Override EPS (current eps used: $2.130)

$2.13

Forward share growth rate = -1.3%
Manual override is on the DCF sheet
Override projected EPS growth (also affects Graham analysis) 
Override allowable PE above15
Allow for dividend influence (if any) Click for more detailNoAdjusted FV$31.23
Fair Value based on PE$32.0 PE Fair Value Discount:0.8%Discount to Adj:None
 

Graham Summary

 

safety factor (S.F.)

 

Last bond import on 26-Jun-14

20yr AAA Corp Bond rate

 

Default modified graham

Est. EPS x

(

8.5

+

1.9

x EPS growth rate) x

0.80

x min(

1

,

4.4/

3.89

)

Revised modified graham input area in yellow

Est. EPS x

(

 

+

 

x EPS growth rate) x

0.90

x min(

1

,

4.4/

3.89

)

Computer recommendations

8.5

 

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

optional bond rate override:

 

 

 

 

 

A

 

B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Est. EPS

 

 

EPS growth rate) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USED ------->

$2.13

(

8.5

+

1.9

4.82

0.90

x min(

1

,

4.4/

3.89

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Modified Graham FV

Discount to Graham FV:

6.7%

 

Analyst targets for INTC

 

$33.84

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted FV

 

 

$31.23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discount to Adjusted:

None