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FTR Revenue & FCF Trends & Data (or Click here for preliminary financial calcs for the acquisition of T's CT assets)

Revised per Q1-13 slide presentations

 

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Residential (in 000's)

$589,166

$576,304

$560,913

$544,144

$542,000

$534,000

$531,397

$521,615

$514,798

$505,483

          506,073

$503,125

Business (in 000's)

$591,310

$588,106

$581,993

$591,966

$569,000

$569,000

$573,000

$564,919

$548,340

$546,367

          543,990

$541,759

Residential Customers

       3,338,306

       3,251,959

       3,174,915

       3,103,766

       3,038,918

       2,978,896

       2,932,163

       2,887,063

       2,859,229

       2,842,883

       2,822,141

       2,803,481

Business Customers

          333,396

          326,763

          319,379

          309,900

          302,142

          296,458

          291,394

          286,106

          281,052

          278,131

          274,653

          270,799

Total rev

$1,180,476

$1,164,410

$1,142,906

$1,136,110

$1,119,709

$1,111,880

$1,112,494

$1,086,534

$1,063,138

$1,051,850

$1,050,063

$1,044,884

Original Business calculations per CEO comments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

          541,814

Residential revenue adjusted for the sale of Mohave.

 

FCF vs. Dividend payout projections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

R2 is a number between zero and one whose main purpose is the prediction of future outcomes on the basis of other related information, or in this case management's track record. It describes how well a regression line fits a set of data:

  • R2 <.30 are considered to have no correlation and behavior is explained by chance
  • R2 of .30 to .499 are considered to be a mild relationship
  • R2 of .50 to .699% are considered to be a moderate relationship
  • R2 of .70 to 1.0 are considered to be a strong relationship 

 

Business trend (below red line) based on management guidance on the conference call:

This quarter, we achieved stability in small business revenues for the first time since 2010. Carrier excluding wireless backhaul and small, medium and enterprise, improved over second quarter results. The one remaining headwind is our wireless backhaul revenue decline, but that was anticipated. Once we fully work through the transition in wireless backhaul during the first half of 2014, we expect the business segment to be well positioned to deliver sustainable sequential revenue growth. After three solid quarters of revenue improvement, we believe we have turned the corner in successfully mitigating revenue decline and in moving closer to our objective of growing revenue.

 

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Broadband subscribers

1,707,678

1,738,670

1,754,842

1,764,160

1,775,853

1,781,295

1,782,278

1,787,561

1,782,599

1,812,110

1,838,915

1,866,670

Video subscribers

546,404

554,218

556,552

557,527

561,878

568,154

328,538

346,627

364,961

380,180

377,915

385,353

 

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Broadband penetration (Rt axis)

47%

49%

50%

52%

53%

54%

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

61%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted per Q1 slide show

 

 

 

 

 

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Residential Rev (000's)

 $    589,166

 $   576,304

 $   560,913

 $        544,144

 $   542,000

 $   534,033

 $   531,397

 $   521,615

 $   514,798

 $   505,483

 $   506,073

 $   503,125

Business Rev (000's)

591,310

588,106

581,993

          591,966

569,000

569,086

573,000

564,919

548,340

546,367

543,990

 $   541,759

Total Customer Rev

1,180,476

1,164,410

1,142,906

        1,136,110

1,111,000

1,103,119

1,104,397

 $1,086,534

 $1,063,138

 $1,051,850

 $1,050,063

 $1,044,884

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Residential Rev Change

 

-2.18%

-2.67%

-2.99%

-0.39%

-1.47%

-0.49%

-1.84%

-1.31%

-1.81%

0.12%

-0.58%

Business Rev Change

 

-0.54%

-1.04%

1.71%

-3.88%

0.02%

0.69%

-1.41%

-2.93%

-0.36%

-0.44%

-0.41%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Residential Rev (000's)- TTM

 

 

 

        2,270,527

   2,223,361

   2,181,090

   2,151,574

   2,129,045

   2,101,843

   2,073,293

   2,047,969

   2,029,479

Business Rev (000's) - TTM

 

 

 

        2,353,375

   2,331,065

   2,312,045

   2,303,052

   2,276,005

   2,255,345

   2,232,626

   2,203,616

   2,180,456

Total Customer Rev - TTM

 

 

 

        4,623,902

   4,554,426

   4,493,135

   4,454,626

   4,405,050

   4,357,188

   4,305,919

   4,251,585

   4,209,935

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Residential Rev Change - TTM

 

 

 

 

-2.08%

-1.90%

-1.35%

-1.05%

-1.28%

-1.36%

-1.22%

-0.90%

Business Rev Change - TTM

 

 

 

 

-0.95%

-0.82%

-0.39%

-1.17%

-0.91%

-1.01%

-1.30%

-1.05%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Switched access and subsidy

166,221

157,845

148,033

          147,042

157,054

155,688

148,072

146,200

142,258

138,683

135,215

 $   135,485

Total Rev

 $ 1,346,697

 $1,322,255

 $1,290,939

 $     1,283,152

 $1,268,054

 $1,258,807

 $1,252,469

 $1,232,734

 $1,205,396

 $1,190,533

 $1,185,278

 $1,180,369

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Ave monthly total Rev per customer

 $        120.8

 $      121.7

 $      121.7

 $           124.0

 $      125.5

 $      127.0

 $      128.5

 $      128.5

 $      127.9

 $      127.2

 $      127.6

 $      128.0

Ave monthly total customer Rev per customer

 $        105.9

 $      107.2

 $      107.7

 $           109.8

 $      110.7

 $      112.1

 $      114.1

 $      113.7

 $      112.8

 $      112.3

 $      113.0

 $      113.3

Ave monthly business Rev per customer

 $        591.2

 $      599.9

 $      607.4

 $           636.7

 $      627.7

 $      639.9

 $      655.5

 $      658.2

 $      650.3

 $      654.8

 $      660.2

 $      666.9

Ave monthly residential Rev per customer

 $         58.8

 $        59.1

 $        58.9

 $             58.4

 $        59.5

 $        59.8

 $        60.4

 $        60.2

 $        60.0

 $        59.3

 $        59.8

 $        59.8

Ave monthly total customer  Rev per customer

 $        107.2

 $      108.5

 $      109.0

 $           110.9

 $      110.8

 $      112.3

 $      114.2

 $      114.1

 $      112.8

 $      112.3

 $      113.0

 $      113.3

Ave monthly total Rev per customer

 $        122.3

 $      123.2

 $      123.1

 $           125.3

 $      126.5

 $      128.1

 $      129.5

 $      129.5

 $      127.9

 $      127.2

 $      127.6

 $      128.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Residential customer metrics:

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Residential Customers

3,338,306

3,251,959

3,174,915

3,103,766

3,038,918

2,978,896

2,932,163

2,887,063

2,859,229

2,842,833

2,822,141

2,803,481

Rev (in 000's)

 $    589,166

 $   576,304

 $   560,913

 $        544,144

 $   534,836

 $   535,089

 $   531,397

 $   521,615

 $   514,798

 $   505,483

 $   506,073

 $   503,125

Ave monthly residential Rev per customer

 $        57.36

 $      57.71

 $      57.52

 $           56.95

 $      57.83

 $      58.19

 $      58.72

 $      58.54

 $      58.82

 $      59.10

59.56

 $      59.62

Customer monthly churn

1.79%

1.66%

1.72%

1.61%

1.58%

1.63%

1.63%

1.62%

1.64%

1.64%

1.81%

1.67%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Business customer metrics:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Business Customers

333,396

326,763

319,379

309,900

302,142

296,458

291,394

286,106

281,052

278,131

274653

 $   270,799

Rev (in 000's)

 $    591,310

 $   588,106

 $   581,993

 $        591,966

 $   584,873

 $   576,791

 $   581,097

564,919

548,340

546,367

543,990

541,759

Ave monthly business Rev per customer

 $      582.10

 $     593.90

 $     600.48

 $         627.00

 $     619.88

 $     642.38

 $     659.01

 $     652.14

 $     644.55

 $     651.39

 $     656.06

 $     662.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

Residential Customers

3,338,306

3,251,959

3,174,915

3,103,766

3,038,918

2,978,896

2,932,163

2,887,063

2,859,229

2,842,833

2,822,141

2,803,481

Business Customers

333,396

326,763

319,379

309,900

302,142

296,458

291,394

286,106

281,052

278,131

274,653

270,799

Total Customers

3,671,702

3,578,722

3,494,294

3,413,666

3,341,060

3,275,354

3,223,557

3,173,169

3,140,281

3,120,964

3,096,794

3,074,280

 

 

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

% Change Residential Customers

-2.59%

-2.37%

-2.24%

-2.09%

-1.98%

-1.57%

-1.54%

-0.96%

-0.57%

-0.73%

-0.66%

% Change Business Customers

 

-1.99%

-2.26%

-2.97%

-2.50%

-1.88%

-1.71%

-1.81%

-1.77%

-1.04%

-1.25%

-1.40%