Skip to main content

Investor Information Exchange

ideas & data

Home  Fair Value List  Focus Stock  Templates  Market Trends  Blog  Contact  Support IIEX  Financial Websites  Member Login   
AAPL > FTR > GE > INTC > LVLT > MSFT > PFE >  

                      Link to Articles            Link To Quarterly Data

Check the Fair Value List tab for current updates to Fair Values. Information is provided "as is", solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice

Please read disclaimer - link at the bottom of this page                       last updated 7/07/14

 



FV reflects the minimum of the PE Analysis or the average of the DCF & Graham,i.e., one serves as a backstop to the other.

Partial results copied from program available to IIEX supporters

 

DCF Summary

YEAR ENDING 2004200520062007200820092010201120122013TTM
Cash Flow from Operations934 2535 2220 5470 9596 10159 18595 37529 50856 53666 53944
Purchase Of Property, Plant, Equipment(176)(260)(657)(986)(1091)(1144)(2005)(4260)(8295)(8165)(7207)
Free Cash Flow758 2275 1563 4484 8505 9015 16590 33269 42561 45501 46737
Shares Outstanding (Diluted)5422.45997.56142.762256315634964736556.56617.56521.66156.7
FCF/Share$0.14 $0.38 $0.25 $0.72 $1.35 $1.42 $2.56 $5.07 $6.43 $6.98 $7.59
Dividends Per Share----------------$0.38 $1.63 $1.74
5 year FCF growth rate    57.3%30.2%58.7%47.8%36.7%37.5%24.3%
Projected cash growth rate after 20147.0%
10Recalled Inputs
AAPL Discount Rate10%Override 5yr diluted share growth rate of -0.3% 
AAPL Margin of Safety (MOS)30%
Replace next years default FCF of 46737 ($mil) 
Override projected cash growth rate 
AAPL Perpetuity growth rate3.0%
  
Total Equity$123,549As of 2013
NPV$861,480 861480-1256288
Total$985,029
DCF Fair Value$107.22 Discount to DCF FV:11.7%

PE Summary

YEAR ENDING 2004200520062007200820092010201120122013TTM
Adjust net income for non-recurring charges if applicable           
Net Income266132819893496611982351401325922417333703737707
Period ending PE Ratio56.534.634.039.016.820.418.713.815.112.015.2
Shares Outstanding (Diluted)5422.45997.56142.762256315634964736556.56617.56521.66156.7
Month End Stock Price ($)$2.77$7.66$11.00$21.92$16.24$26.48$40.54$54.47$95.30$68.11$92.93
Diluted EPS - Total$0.05 $0.22 $0.32 $0.56 $0.97 $1.30 $2.16 $3.95 $6.31 $5.68 $6.12
5 year growth rate     92.5%57.8%64.9%62.2%42.4%36.4%
Modeled five year EPS growth rate used for FV9.7%
Nasdaq Data9.9%10%10%11%
 Consensus Estimates from NasdaqYear EndEPSHighLowEstimates
Go to the Nasdaq.com site     NOTE: Analyst estimates are not always based on GAAP. This will distort EPS growth rates. 
orSep-14$6.30$6.51$6.1624
Analyst Growth Consenus for AAPLSep-15$6.89$7.43$6.4922
Consensus Estimates for AAPLSep-16$7.58$8.15$7.278For more than 2 estimates
Analyst targets for AAPLSep-17$9.69$9.69$9.691Growth from Sep-14:9.7%
Allowable PE Used16.0
(Up to) past 10 Year median PE - 18.715.134
Optional Overrides   (recalc may be required)Recalled Inputs
Override EPS (current eps used: $6.300) 
Override projected EPS growth (also affects Graham analysis) 
Override allowable PE above16
Allow for dividend influence (if any) Click for more detailNoAdjusted FV$100.80
Fair Value based on PE$100.8 PE Fair Value Discount:5.0%Discount to Adj:5.0%
 

 

Graham Summary

 safety factor (S.F.) Last bond import on 26-Jun-1420yr AAA Corp Bond rate 
Default modified grahamEst. EPS x(8.5+1.9x EPS growth rate) x0.80x min(1,4.4/3.89)
Revised modified graham input area in yellowEst. EPS x( + x EPS growth rate) x0.75x min(1,4.4/3.89)
Computer recommendations8.5 1.9     optional bond rate override:  
AB
Est. EPSEPS growth rate) 
USED ------->$6.30(8.5+1.9

9.69

0.75x min(1,4.4/3.89)
Modified Graham FVDiscount to Graham FV:32.5%Analyst targets for AAPL
$127.15 
Adjusted FV  $100.80
    Discount to Adjusted:5.0%